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LivePlannedWhat the engine saysPlain English first, the arithmetic underneath
MSC West — Feltham holds 120 free, which is 13 days of cover against a forecast of 9.3 a day. Robert Scott needs 10 days and class A carries 7 days of safety stock, so the target position is 159 units. MSC East — Brentwood can release 101 without going short, so move 39 on tomorrow's trunk run and buy nothing.
Do nothing and MSC West — Feltham runs out on 09/09/2026, which is 13 days. Robert Scott needs 10 days to deliver. That is about £400 of sales at risk on this line alone.
Runs out09/09/2026Supplier needs10 daysUses a month280Sales at risk£400On the queue8 daysConfidence
Every figure on this page is the one the order will carry. Accepting the line copies none of it by hand.
Cover against lead timeFree stock running down, day by day
The blue line is free stock falling at the forecast rate. The dashed marker is the earliest a supplier delivery could land. Where the line reaches zero first, the depot is short and no amount of ordering on the day it happens will fix it.
Twelve months of demandMSC West — Feltham
No one-off month found in the last year. Variability is 11 per cent of the mean, which is what sets the confidence on this line.
Eight weeks aheadForecast inside its confidence band
Janitorial runs at 93 per cent of an average month now and 109 per cent next month, which the forecast already carries.
The calculationEvery figure the engine used, in the order it used it
| Step | Why | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Free stock at the depot | 136 on hand less 16 already allocated to orders | 120 |
| Open purchase orders inbound | Nothing on the water | 0 |
| Position the engine works from | Free stock plus what is already inbound | 120 |
| Forecast demand a day | Eight weeks ahead, seasonally shaped, one-off months excluded | 9.32 |
| Lead-time demand | 9.32 a day for 10 days from Robert Scott | 94 |
| Safety stock, class A | Class A carries 7 days of cover for the variability this line shows | 66 |
| Target position | Lead-time demand plus safety stock | 159 |
| Shortfall | Target position less the position now, which is why this line is on the queue | 39 |
| Rounded to the supplier multiple | Robert Scott ships in cases of 10 | 0 |
Free stock at the depot
Why136 on hand less 16 already allocated to ordersUnits120
Open purchase orders inbound
WhyNothing on the waterUnits0
Position the engine works from
WhyFree stock plus what is already inboundUnits120
Forecast demand a day
WhyEight weeks ahead, seasonally shaped, one-off months excludedUnits9.32
Lead-time demand
Why9.32 a day for 10 days from Robert ScottUnits94
Safety stock, class A
WhyClass A carries 7 days of cover for the variability this line showsUnits66
Target position
WhyLead-time demand plus safety stockUnits159
Shortfall
WhyTarget position less the position now, which is why this line is on the queueUnits39
Rounded to the supplier multiple
WhyRobert Scott ships in cases of 10Units0
Confidence is 81 per cent because demand varies by 11 per cent month to month.
Buy or transferTransfers are weighed before purchases, every time
Transfer from the other depotEngine leads with this
- Move39 units from MSC East — Brentwood
- ArrivesNext day, on the trunk run
- Cost£9.71 of handling, nothing bought
- Cash held back£100
- Carbon0.3 kg CO2e avoided
- Safe to release101 units, after MSC East — Brentwood keeps its own cover
Buy from Robert Scott
- Order0 units, 0 cases of 10
- ArrivesDay 10
- Cost£0.00 plus £18.00 carriage, under the £500 threshold
- Terms60 days net · EDI
- Supplier record97 per cent on time, 82 per cent in full
- Minimum order£250, met
Fulfil elsewhere and substitute are the other two options in the client's scope. They are named here and not yet built, because a substitution rule needs their own product data to be honest.
Your decisionThe engine recommends, you decide and the reason is kept
Accepting puts these units on PO-4255 for Robert Scott at MSC West — Feltham, carrying the figures above. Nothing reaches the supplier until a person sends it.
Products, suppliers, prices and case multiples are MSC's real range. Demand history, lead times and supplier terms are derived for the demo, deterministically, so the figures never move between screens.