Jangro Premium Jumbo Toilet Roll 2 Ply 400m x6
LiveCriticalToday: NETSTOCK, hand-keyed into BC
Replaces: a NETSTOCK spreadsheet row with no working shown
What the engine saysPlain English first, the arithmetic underneath
MSC West — Feltham holds 0 free, which is under a day of cover against a forecast of 8.5 a day. Lucart Hygiene needs 8 days and class A carries 7 days of safety stock, so the target position is 129 units. MSC East — Brentwood can release 100, so move 100 first and buy the remaining 30 from Lucart Hygiene.
Do nothing and MSC West — Feltham is already out, so every order for this line goes short until something arrives. That is about 68 units of demand across the lead time. That is about £2,460 of sales at risk on this line alone.
Runs out27/08/2026Supplier needs8 daysUses a month256Sales at risk£2,460On the queue8 daysConfidence
Every figure on this page is the one the order will carry. Accepting the line copies none of it by hand.
Cover against lead timeFree stock running down, day by day
The blue line is free stock falling at the forecast rate. The dashed marker is the earliest a supplier delivery could land. Where the line reaches zero first, the depot is short and no amount of ordering on the day it happens will fix it.
Twelve months of demandMSC West — Feltham
No one-off month found in the last year. Variability is 12 per cent of the mean, which is what sets the confidence on this line.
Eight weeks aheadForecast inside its confidence band
Washroom & Paper runs at 92 per cent of an average month now and 112 per cent next month, which the forecast already carries.
The calculationEvery figure the engine used, in the order it used it
| Step | Why | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Free stock at the depot | 8 on hand less 8 already allocated to orders | 0 |
| Open purchase orders inbound | Nothing on the water | 0 |
| Position the engine works from | Free stock plus what is already inbound | 0 |
| Forecast demand a day | Eight weeks ahead, seasonally shaped, one-off months excluded | 8.54 |
| Lead-time demand | 8.54 a day for 8 days from Lucart Hygiene | 69 |
| Safety stock, class A | Class A carries 7 days of cover for the variability this line shows | 60 |
| Target position | Lead-time demand plus safety stock | 129 |
| Shortfall | Target position less the position now, which is why this line is on the queue | 129 |
| Rounded to the supplier multiple | Lucart Hygiene ships in cases of 6 | 30 |
Free stock at the depot
Why8 on hand less 8 already allocated to ordersUnits0
Open purchase orders inbound
WhyNothing on the waterUnits0
Position the engine works from
WhyFree stock plus what is already inboundUnits0
Forecast demand a day
WhyEight weeks ahead, seasonally shaped, one-off months excludedUnits8.54
Lead-time demand
Why8.54 a day for 8 days from Lucart HygieneUnits69
Safety stock, class A
WhyClass A carries 7 days of cover for the variability this line showsUnits60
Target position
WhyLead-time demand plus safety stockUnits129
Shortfall
WhyTarget position less the position now, which is why this line is on the queueUnits129
Rounded to the supplier multiple
WhyLucart Hygiene ships in cases of 6Units30
Confidence is 80 per cent because demand varies by 12 per cent month to month.
Buy or transferTransfers are weighed before purchases, every time
Transfer from the other depot
- Move100 units from MSC East — Brentwood
- ArrivesNext day, on the trunk run
- Cost£201.40 of handling, nothing bought
- Cash held back£2,018
- Carbon81.4 kg CO2e avoided
- Safe to release100 units, after MSC East — Brentwood keeps its own cover
Buy from Lucart HygieneEngine leads with this
- Order30 units, 5 cases of 6
- ArrivesDay 8
- Cost£605.40, carriage paid
- Terms30 days, 2 per cent early · Supplier portal
- Supplier record84 per cent on time, 97 per cent in full
- Minimum order£350, met
Fulfil elsewhere and substitute are the other two options in the client's scope. They are named here and not yet built, because a substitution rule needs their own product data to be honest.
Your decisionThe engine recommends, you decide and the reason is kept
Accepting puts these units on PO-4652 for Lucart Hygiene at MSC West — Feltham, carrying the figures above. Nothing reaches the supplier until a person sends it.
Products, suppliers, prices and case multiples are MSC's real range. Demand history, lead times and supplier terms are derived for the demo, deterministically, so the figures never move between screens.