DC

Jangro Alcohol Hand Gel 1L x6

LiveCritical
Today: NETSTOCK, hand-keyed into BC
EVA163 · Evans VanodineMSC West — FelthamClass A · confidence 63 per cent, medium
Replaces: a NETSTOCK spreadsheet row with no working shown
What the engine saysPlain English first, the arithmetic underneath
Jangro Alcohol Hand Gel 1L x6

MSC West — Feltham holds 30 free with 44 already inbound, which is 13 days of cover against a forecast of 5.6 a day. Evans Vanodine needs 14 days on the assumed lead time, none is on record and class A carries 7 days of safety stock, so the target position is 117 units. Neither depot has spare cover, so buy 48 from Evans Vanodine.

Do nothing and MSC West — Feltham runs out on 01/09/2026, which is 5 days. Evans Vanodine needs 14 days to deliver. That is about £6,130 of sales at risk on this line alone.

Runs out01/09/2026Supplier needs14 daysUses a month167Sales at risk£6,130On the queue1 daysConfidence
Every figure on this page is the one the order will carry. Accepting the line copies none of it by hand.
Cover against lead timeFree stock running down, day by day
Safety stock 39Supplier arrives day 14Out on day 5740todayday 28
The blue line is free stock falling at the forecast rate. The dashed marker is the earliest a supplier delivery could land. Where the line reaches zero first, the depot is short and no amount of ordering on the day it happens will fix it.
Twelve months of demandMSC West — Feltham
AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul
No one-off month found in the last year. Variability is 12 per cent of the mean, which is what sets the confidence on this line.
Eight weeks aheadForecast inside its confidence band
47027 Aug10 Sep24 Sep8 Oct
Washroom & Paper runs at 92 per cent of an average month now and 112 per cent next month, which the forecast already carries.
The calculationEvery figure the engine used, in the order it used it
StepWhyUnits
Free stock at the depot33 on hand less 3 already allocated to orders30
Open purchase orders inboundCounted once, never double counted with the depot holding44
Position the engine works fromFree stock plus what is already inbound74
Forecast demand a dayEight weeks ahead, seasonally shaped, one-off months excluded5.55
Lead-time demand5.55 a day for 14 days from Evans Vanodine, assumed because no lead time is on record78
Safety stock, class AClass A carries 7 days of cover for the variability this line shows39
Target positionLead-time demand plus safety stock117
ShortfallTarget position less the position now, which is why this line is on the queue43
Rounded to the supplier multipleEvans Vanodine ships in cases of 648
Free stock at the depot
Why33 on hand less 3 already allocated to ordersUnits30
Open purchase orders inbound
WhyCounted once, never double counted with the depot holdingUnits44
Position the engine works from
WhyFree stock plus what is already inboundUnits74
Forecast demand a day
WhyEight weeks ahead, seasonally shaped, one-off months excludedUnits5.55
Lead-time demand
Why5.55 a day for 14 days from Evans Vanodine, assumed because no lead time is on recordUnits78
Safety stock, class A
WhyClass A carries 7 days of cover for the variability this line showsUnits39
Target position
WhyLead-time demand plus safety stockUnits117
Shortfall
WhyTarget position less the position now, which is why this line is on the queueUnits43
Rounded to the supplier multiple
WhyEvans Vanodine ships in cases of 6Units48
Confidence is 63 per cent because demand varies by 12 per cent month to month and the supplier record carries no lead time so fourteen days was assumed.
Buy or transferTransfers are weighed before purchases, every time
Transfer from the other depot

MSC East — Brentwood holds 184 free and needs all of it for its own cover, so there is nothing to move.

Buy from Evans VanodineEngine leads with this
  • Order48 units, 8 cases of 6
  • ArrivesDay 14, assumed, no lead time on record
  • Cost£2,081.28, carriage paid
  • Terms60 days net · Structured email
  • Supplier record85 per cent on time, 86 per cent in full
  • Minimum order£150, met
Fulfil elsewhere and substitute are the other two options in the client's scope. They are named here and not yet built, because a substitution rule needs their own product data to be honest.
Your decisionThe engine recommends, you decide and the reason is kept
Accepting puts these units on PO-4299 for Evans Vanodine at MSC West — Feltham, carrying the figures above. Nothing reaches the supplier until a person sends it.

Products, suppliers, prices and case multiples are MSC's real range. Demand history, lead times and supplier terms are derived for the demo, deterministically, so the figures never move between screens.