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LiveCriticalToday: NETSTOCK, hand-keyed into BC
Replaces: a NETSTOCK spreadsheet row with no working shown
What the engine saysPlain English first, the arithmetic underneath
MSC East — Brentwood holds 4 free, which is under a day of cover against a forecast of 6.5 a day. Evans Vanodine needs 14 days on the assumed lead time, none is on record and class A carries 7 days of safety stock, so the target position is 138 units. MSC West — Feltham can release 153 without going short, so move 134 on tomorrow's trunk run and buy nothing.
Do nothing and MSC East — Brentwood runs out on 27/08/2026, which is 1 days. Evans Vanodine needs 14 days to deliver. That is about £561 of sales at risk on this line alone.
Runs out27/08/2026Supplier needs14 daysUses a month196Sales at risk£561On the queue3 daysConfidence
Every figure on this page is the one the order will carry. Accepting the line copies none of it by hand.
Cover against lead timeFree stock running down, day by day
The blue line is free stock falling at the forecast rate. The dashed marker is the earliest a supplier delivery could land. Where the line reaches zero first, the depot is short and no amount of ordering on the day it happens will fix it.
Twelve months of demandMSC East — Brentwood
No one-off month found in the last year. Variability is 11 per cent of the mean, which is what sets the confidence on this line.
Eight weeks aheadForecast inside its confidence band
Washroom & Paper runs at 92 per cent of an average month now and 112 per cent next month, which the forecast already carries.
The calculationEvery figure the engine used, in the order it used it
| Step | Why | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Free stock at the depot | 11 on hand less 7 already allocated to orders | 4 |
| Open purchase orders inbound | Nothing on the water | 0 |
| Position the engine works from | Free stock plus what is already inbound | 4 |
| Forecast demand a day | Eight weeks ahead, seasonally shaped, one-off months excluded | 6.54 |
| Lead-time demand | 6.54 a day for 14 days from Evans Vanodine, assumed because no lead time is on record | 92 |
| Safety stock, class A | Class A carries 7 days of cover for the variability this line shows | 46 |
| Target position | Lead-time demand plus safety stock | 138 |
| Shortfall | Target position less the position now, which is why this line is on the queue | 134 |
| Rounded to the supplier multiple | Evans Vanodine ships in cases of 10 | 0 |
Free stock at the depot
Why11 on hand less 7 already allocated to ordersUnits4
Open purchase orders inbound
WhyNothing on the waterUnits0
Position the engine works from
WhyFree stock plus what is already inboundUnits4
Forecast demand a day
WhyEight weeks ahead, seasonally shaped, one-off months excludedUnits6.54
Lead-time demand
Why6.54 a day for 14 days from Evans Vanodine, assumed because no lead time is on recordUnits92
Safety stock, class A
WhyClass A carries 7 days of cover for the variability this line showsUnits46
Target position
WhyLead-time demand plus safety stockUnits138
Shortfall
WhyTarget position less the position now, which is why this line is on the queueUnits134
Rounded to the supplier multiple
WhyEvans Vanodine ships in cases of 10Units0
Confidence is 64 per cent because demand varies by 11 per cent month to month and the supplier record carries no lead time so fourteen days was assumed.
Buy or transferTransfers are weighed before purchases, every time
Transfer from the other depotEngine leads with this
- Move134 units from MSC West — Feltham
- ArrivesNext day, on the trunk run
- Cost£26.42 of handling, nothing bought
- Cash held back£517
- Carbon7.4 kg CO2e avoided
- Safe to release153 units, after MSC West — Feltham keeps its own cover
Buy from Evans Vanodine
- Order0 units, 0 cases of 10
- ArrivesDay 14, assumed, no lead time on record
- Cost£0.00 plus £22.00 carriage, under the £500 threshold
- Terms60 days net · Structured email
- Supplier record85 per cent on time, 86 per cent in full
- Minimum order£150, met
Fulfil elsewhere and substitute are the other two options in the client's scope. They are named here and not yet built, because a substitution rule needs their own product data to be honest.
Your decisionThe engine recommends, you decide and the reason is kept
Accepting puts these units on PO-4865 for Evans Vanodine at MSC East — Brentwood, carrying the figures above. Nothing reaches the supplier until a person sends it.
Products, suppliers, prices and case multiples are MSC's real range. Demand history, lead times and supplier terms are derived for the demo, deterministically, so the figures never move between screens.